Connecting BTC $— Normal conditions Asia session 1,649 signals · 121 days
Bitcoin cascade early warning

Every cascade starts by moving against you. We tell you one is forming about ten minutes out, how far it runs, and how deep the fake-out goes before it turns.

No card · Free tier runs indefinitely · 1,649 signals public

Mean cascade shape · 1,649 signals · high volatility Minutes after the alert
The measured shape of a cascade after an alert Price falls about 0.28% against the call for the first three minutes, crosses back through zero near minute four, and peaks about 0.35% in favour around minute ten. Dashed lines mark the range four in five signals stay inside. +0.50% +0.25% 0 −0.25% −0.50% 0 5 10 15 20 ALERT FIRES −0.28% FAKE-OUT +0.35% PEAK · MINUTE 10

Dashed lines mark the band four in five signals stay inside. A stop tighter than the lower line gets hit by the fake-out, not by being wrong.

The control nobody runs
68%

of what? A hit rate quoted against nothing is a statement about Bitcoin, not about us.

After our alert70.0%
A volatility-matched moment65.0%
A random moment58.7%

We ran 41,225 random moments over the same 121 days and scored them identically. Against a random moment we are 11.4 points ahead, and the twenty minutes that follow carry 1.29× the volatility. Against the harder control — random moments matched on the previous half-hour of price movement — the gap narrows to 5.1 points and 1.10×. That second number is the one a sceptic would compute, so we print it ourselves.

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The free tier sends every alert. Nothing is held back except the numbers you'd size a stop with.

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Plainly

What it does, and what it refuses to claim.

WarnsA cascade is forming — roughly ten minutes before it peaks.
SizesHow far it runs. 0.35% on average in extreme volatility, 0.10% in quiet markets.
BoundsHow deep the fake-out goes, with the band four in five signals stay inside.
PublishesEvery result, graded — including the ones that went nowhere.
CannotCall the direction. It lands at 50.4% against a coin-flip control of 49.8%. Reversing every alert we have ever sent would move detection by two points.
CannotBe traded mechanically at a profit. Average move 0.21%, average adverse move 0.19%. After fees that loses money.
NeverTrades, holds funds, or touches your exchange account.
Minute by minute

What the ten minutes feel like.

The hard part is the first three minutes, when price is going the wrong way and you have to sit still.

Minute 0

The alert fires

Order-book depth thins, flow turns one-sided, liquidations start accelerating. You get the conditions, the expected size, and the fake-out band.

Minutes 1–3

It goes against you

Around 0.16% in normal conditions, 0.28% when volatile. Late positions are being flushed. This is the part that shakes people out.

Minutes 3–8

The cascade develops

Forced selling feeds itself and the real move builds. Four in five signals stay inside the band quoted at minute zero.

Minute ~10

Peak, then graded

The move tops out and the signal is scored against what actually happened. Win or lose, it goes on the public record.

Not a screenshot

Running right now.

Recent signals$—
Waiting for the feed…
BTC/USDT order flow$—
Engine
1,649
Tracked
67.6%
Detection
+0.21%
Avg move
88%
Avg conf
Where it earns its keep

It works in storms, not in calm.

Conditions predict signal quality better than anything else we measure. Alerts now go out only in the two where we beat the control.

Extreme volatility
78%
78% · 177
High volatility
78%
78% · 326
Normal conditions
66%
66% · 978
Quiet market
45%
45% · 168
32%
produce too little movement to act on. We cannot tell which in advance.
50%
is how often the direction is right. A coin flip. We sell the warning, not the call.
100%
of results are graded and public, failures included.
Plans

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  • Cascade alerts, long or short
  • Market conditions and session
  • Fake-out warning on every alert
  • Public track record
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$39 /mo

The numbers that let you place a stop.

  • Everything in Free
  • Fake-out depth with the 80% band
  • Expected move size per signal
  • Outcome follow-ups when signals resolve
  • Early-exit warnings on weak signals
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The order book, and a direct line.

  • Everything in Pro
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Before you sign up

Straight answers.

Is this a trading bot?

No. It does not trade, hold funds, or touch your exchange account. It watches Binance order flow and tells you when a cascade is forming. What you do next is yours.

Can you predict which way price will move?

No. Across 1,649 signals the favourable move beat the adverse one 50.4% of the time. A coin flip scores 49.8%. Reversing the direction on every alert we have ever sent would change our detection rate by about two points.

This is a volatility forecaster. It tells you a move is coming, roughly how large, and how much it is likely to hurt first. Anyone selling ten-minute directional calls on Bitcoin is selling a coin flip with a subscription attached.

Why does price go against me right after the alert?

Because that is what a cascade looks like from the inside. Late positions are force-closed before the move completes, so price dips against the call first — around 0.16% in normal conditions, 0.28% when volatile, for roughly three and a half minutes.

Four in five signals stay inside 0.25% in normal conditions and 0.44% when volatile. A stop tighter than that gets hit by the fake-out rather than by being wrong. Being stopped out and then watching the move happen is the most common reason people quit in week one, which is why the chart at the top of this page leads with it.

Can I just trade every signal?

No, and we would rather say so here than take your money for a month. Average favourable movement is 0.21% and average adverse movement 0.19%. After fees, trading every alert mechanically loses money. This is a risk and timing tool — protect a position, avoid a bad entry, size down before volatility hits.

Why do I get fewer alerts than I used to?

Because most of them were not worth sending. Against a volatility-matched control the engine has a real edge in extreme and high volatility — 7.0 and 8.9 points — and essentially none in normal or quiet markets. Alerts now go out only in the two conditions that earn it: roughly four a day instead of thirteen, at 78% detection instead of 68%.

Do you hide the bad calls?

Every signal is graded when its window closes and stays on the public record, including the ones that went nowhere. The live feed above shows everything, with nothing removed.

Do you have an API?

Yes — signed webhooks with HMAC, filtering by market condition and confidence, and a per-key delivery audit trail. It is sold separately from the consumer plans. Get in touch through the links below.

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